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Top 5 Players Who Overachieved Their xG In 2023-24

Written by on May 27, 2024

The 2023-24 Premier League season was remarkable in every sense of the word. Manchester City made history by becoming the first-ever English club to win four consecutive Premier League titles. Runners-up Arsenal enjoyed their best-ever campaign in England, winning an impressive 28 games. Aston Villa finished fourth to qualify for the UEFA Champions League for the very first time.

Meanwhile, Erling Haaland, Ollie Watkins, and Phil Foden stood out in the individual categories, winning the Golden Boot, Playmaker Award, and Premier League Player of the Season awards, respectively.

Also, a record 1,246 goals were scored across 380 matches throughout the 2023-24 season, making it the most explosive campaign in Premier League history. Today, we will look at five players who made a telling contribution to the tally, handsomely exceeding expectations. Continue reading to check out the top five players who overachieved their expected goals (xG) by the largest margins in 2023-24:

Data: Oracle (via Premier League)

#5 Diogo Jota (Liverpool): +4.68

Liverpool Striker Diogo Jota
Diogo Jota Celebrating After Scoring For Liverpool

Liverpool forward Diogo Jota had a decent Premier League campaign in 2023-24. The Portugal international scored 10 times in the English top flight, outperforming his xG by a cool 4.68. The fact that he only played 21 Premier League matches (14 starts) due to injuries makes his tally all the more impressive. Jota also claimed three assists in the English top flight.

Jota had a decent run in the three cup competitions he featured in. Across the UEFA Europa League, FA Cup, and Carabao Cup, the 27-year-old played 11 games, scoring five times and bagging an assist.

#4 Son Heung-min (Tottenham Hotspur): +4.99

Son Heung-min Overachieved his xG In Premier LeagueSon Heung-min Overachieved his xG In Premier League
Heung-Min Son Is Tottenham Hotspur’s Marquee Player Post Harry Kane

After Harry Kane left for Bayern Munich, Son Heung-min automatically became Tottenham Hotspur‘s go-to man in attack. The South Korean did not disappoint his fans, scoring an impressive 17 times and providing 10 assists in 35 Premier League matches. Son, who had scored 10 league goals in 2022-23, surpassed his xG by 4.99.

Tottenham Hotspur did not perform as convincingly as many had hoped in the league, missing UEFA Champions League soccer after finishing fifth in the rankings. However, if they can keep their chin up and support Son as much as he deserves, they should be in for a much better campaign next season.

#3 Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace): +5.06

Jean Philippe Mateta Outperformed His xG Jean Philippe Mateta Outperformed His xG
Jean Philippe Mateta Scored A Hat-Trick Against Aston Villa

Crystal Palace enjoyed an excellent Premier League run in 2023-24, especially toward the end. They won four of their last five league matches (1 D), the most impressive of which came on Matchday 38 against Aston Villa. Palace, who finished 10th in the rankings, bagged a thumping 5-0 victory over the Villans, courtesy of a sensational hat-trick from Jean-Philippe Mateta.

Mateta ended the 2023-24 season with an impressive tally of 16 goals, overachieving his expected goals by 5.06. The 26-year-old French center-forward also bagged five assists in 35 league outings.

#2 Callum Hudson-Odoi (Nottingham Forest): +5.27

Callum Hudson-Odoi Outperformed His Premier League xGCallum Hudson-Odoi Outperformed His Premier League xG
Callum Hudson-Odoi’s Goals Proved Critical As Nottingham Avoided Relegation

Chelsea academy graduate Callum Hudson-Odoi joined Nottingham Forest on the deadline day of the 2023-24 summer transfer window. The left-winger got off the mark in his debut game and added seven more goals along the way. His final tally of eight goals may not seem extraordinary, but he comfortably exceeded expectations, overachieving their expected goals by 5.27. Hudson-Odoi’s goals earned Nottingham four points in the Premier League, which went a long way in helping them escape relegation.

Nottingham Forest finished 17th in the rankings, avoiding relegation by six points.

#1 Phil Foden (Manchester City): +8.66

Phil Foden Outperformed His xG In Premier League By The Largest MarginsPhil Foden Outperformed His xG In Premier League By The Largest Margins
Phil Foden Won The Premier League Player Of The Season Award

Manchester City superstar Phil Foden scored a handsome 19 goals in the 2023-24 Premier League season, surpassing his xG by a whopping +8.66. The Player of the Season award winner also chipped in with an impressive eight assists in 35 appearances across the campaign.

Foden, who won his sixth Premier League title at City last weekend, also performed admirably in the UEFA Champions League. In eight matches, he scored five times and provided three assists.

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